House 2008: Open Seat Watch (October)

Another month, another opportunity to round up all the retirements and open seats that may pop up in next year’s House elections. We have a few changes since our last installment in September, with the retirements of Republicans Jerry Weller (IL-11) and Terry Everett (AL-02), and the decision of GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (NM-01) to run for the Senate. IL-11 and NM-01 stand to be top-tier pick up opportunities for Democrats, and Democrats are hoping that a strong candidate emerges to give Republicans a run for their money in the Alabama seat. (Paging Bobby Bright?) One development that may lift NRCC spirits is the possibility that Jim Ramstad (MN-03) will un-retire, putting a toss-up district into much safer territory for Republicans. For now, we’ll keep him on The List, with the appropriate question mark.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

That adds up to 10 House retirements for Republicans, many of them in marginal districts. As the retirement trends from the 2005/2006 cycle suggest, there still is plenty of time for more House members to grab a life preserver and bail.

Deletions from this list include Don Manzullo (IL-16), who filed to run again, and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01), who passed away from an ongoing battle with cancer on the weekend. I’ve added Tancredo and Lamborn in Colorado — both have questionable futures in the House. Another addition is Julia Carson, who returns to the list after being scratched last month. While she did announce her re-election, her poor health is increasingly becoming a major story in national and local media, and her fundraising has been beyond anemic. Unfortunately, I have little choice but to add her back to the watch list.

Babs Cubin is also staying on the list, despite saying recently that she “absolutely intends” to run again “at this point in time”. Uh-huh. “At this point in time” and “intend” in the same sentence is a huge retirement red flag. The same goes for New York Republican Jim McHugh, who put it a bit more strongly, but still left the door open for a vacancy by saying “at this time, I fully expect to be a candidate for re-election in 2008”. Expectations have a funny habit of changing, and so does the mind of a congressman. He stays on the watch list.

Anyone else we should know about? Let us know in the comments.